By David K. Walsh | June 15, 2017 7:06 amData from the Federal Reserve shows that the financial crisis ended in December 2008, but we’re still waiting for the next round of reckoning.
On Thursday, a panel of economists at the Brookings Institution published an important report showing that it took until the end of 2009 for a new round of bad mortgage and credit card defaults to start to appear in the data.
This new round is already on its way.
The next round, in which many of the same people who were bailed out in 2008 are now forced to find new ways to pay for their bad debts, is now happening, according to the report.
The panel, chaired by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, found that there was “a large increase” in the number of new default filings during the last two years of the crisis.
The first quarter of 2016 saw more than 30 percent more defaults than the same period in 2016.
The median number of defaults was 3.1 for the first quarter, and for the second quarter it was 3, according a report from Bloomberg.
By the end (of this year), that number was down to 2.5.
The biggest increase in default filings in 2016 was for credit card debt, the most recent year for which data are available.
The median number was 5.5, up from 4.1.
While the panel didn’t look at mortgage-backed securities, there’s some indication that the number is starting to creep up.
According to the Brookings report, the median value of defaulted credit card balances rose from $3.9 billion in the first three months of 2017 to $7.5 billion in December.
In the second three months, it climbed to $6.4 billion.
The rise is likely due to higher interest rates on existing debt.
The new defaults that the Fed panel is monitoring are a reflection of the growing cost of borrowing, not an indication of a broader collapse of the financial system.
They also don’t necessarily represent a new spike in defaults.
The report found that defaults rose for all types of financial instruments, not just debt.
As for how bad things are getting, Bernanke’s panel said that the biggest jump in defaults in the fourth quarter was for mortgage-related loans, including auto loans and mortgages to renters.
These are the ones most likely to be affected by the rising costs of borrowing.
“The foreclosure rate in the United States for residential mortgages is about 10 percent, so the risk to a mortgage is the borrower,” the report said.
“In the case of rental mortgages, the risk is the renter.
The foreclosure rate for the U.S. renter population was 12.9 percent.”
Bernanke said he was concerned about a “substantial increase in defaults” that was happening on the home front, but he noted that it was too early to see a definitive trend.
The last time the U,S.
went through such a financial crisis was during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
That’s when millions of people lost their homes, Berners said.
“But even with a significant increase in mortgage defaults, the U.,S.
economy still does better than most countries in terms of employment, per capita, and per capita wealth,” Berners wrote.